Oil Prices Expected to Rise Following Iran's Attack on Israel

Oil prices are expected to rise on Monday after Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend, analysts said on Sunday, but further gains may depend on how Israel and the West choose to retaliate. Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1, a first direct attack on Israeli territory that has stoked fears of a wider regional conflict.

Concern of a response from Iran to the strike on its embassy compound in Damascus supported oil last week and helped send global benchmark Brent crude on Friday to $92.18 a barrel, the highest since October.

Aside from conflicts between the various factions in the Middle East, oil prices are also affected by domestic government actions, and here in the United States, the Biden administration has been decidedly unfriendly to the energy sector. At least one analyst, pointing out that (so far) production in the region has not been affected, is projecting that any increase will be temporary.

An increase in oil prices has a domino effect that eventually affects the entire global economy. Every product, every commodity, and every service depends in one way or another on oil to develop, transport, and, in many cases, manufacture. Petroleum is refined not only into gasoline, diesel fuel, and heating oil, but also provides raw materials for everything from tires to life jackets to pharmaceutical resources. Any rise in petroleum prices has a global impact.

The Biden administration has argued it is not encouraging Iran to raise exports and is enforcing sanctions. Lower Iranian exports would lead to a further rise in oil prices and the cost of gasoline in the U.S., a politically sensitive subject ahead of the elections.

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Speaker Johnson to Send $96 Billion Israel-Taiwan-Ukraine Funding Package to House Floor on Friday

At a closed-door meeting of the House Republican Conference Monday, Speaker Mike Johnson committed to putting the stalled $96 billion foreign aid bill for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine on the floor for a vote on Friday evening.

This bill has been the source of much controversy since it passed the Senate in February. While a small number of Republicans have balked at helping Ukraine defend itself, The Squad and its allies don't want to send aid to Israel once again, demonstrating the Horseshoe Theory at work.

The plan is to introduce the three aid packages as separate bills, but the same rules will cover them. To make this happen, the Rules Committee will have to approve it, and Democrats will need to consent. At present, Johnson says he intends to allow some number of amendments to be offered to each bill. A fourth bill that is not an aid bill will be included in the package.

The Ukraine aid package is anticipated to require the White House to present a strategy for Ukrainian victory, require the US to release longer-range weapons to Ukraine, reinstate the lapsed lend-lease program, and create a class of loans that can be converted to grants.

The vote is contingent upon the bill's text being made available to members by Tuesday evening.

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